Will Bibi’s Election Kill Mubarak?

Egypt’s president Hosni Mubarak is angry and worried. As well he should be. Much of the Arab street now sees him as a collaborator with both Israel and the U.S. Not an enviable position in the Middle East. His predecessor, Anwar Sadat, was assassinated for less.

Mubarak is angry that Palestinian resistance continues. He desperately needs a two-state solution to remain in power and in possession of his life. He needs former agreements and pacts to be honored and implemented. None of that is happening and prospects for progress are very grim. So Mubarak is angry with Hamas for winning a democratic election and continuing the resistance; and, he is angry at Israel for electing the far-right Likud and Benyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu as Prime Minister. That fact ensures an ongoing lack of progress, an empowered settler movement, and signals the end of Israeli interest in a two-state solution. That is very bad news for Egypt’s president, as his prestige has taken a beating and his role as a legitimate Arab moderate has been undermined.

Unemployment in Egypt is also at historic highs. According to recent reports, “Unemployment is - unofficially - somewhere north of 30 percent. Worse, it's highly concentrated among youth, whose demographic bulge currently generates 800,000 new job seekers every year.”

Mubarak is worried by these circumstances. Very worried from the looks of things. He has recently lashed-out at Hamas, arresting key members of the movement’s leadership in Cairo. He has tied Hamas to the banned, but tolerated, Muslim Brotherhood – Egypt’s biggest Islamist party and reputed source of Sadat’s assassin. The state-sponsored press including television is whining daily about Hamas treachery, attacking Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, perhaps the most popular man in the Arab world at the moment. That demonstrates just how desperate Mubarak has become. And of course, he has attacked Iran.

The fact that Mubarak, an authoritarian dictator installed by the military, is angrily lashing out at democratic Hamas and Iran is not lost on the Arab street. Like most of us, Arabs are impressed with results. And Mubarak has no concessions he can point to, no positive results he can cite from his years of relations with Israel. He has profited while his Arab brothers have suffered and lost their land, their lives and their futures. This brings shame and disgrace to Mubarak and his administration in the eyes of many Arabs. As three noted observers, two professors and an international executive, recently noted: Egypt, suffering political sclerosis of extended one-man rule and in continued fear of the Muslim Brotherhood and its various incarnations, struggles to stay true to its agreements with Israel to keep the billions of US aid flowing to maintain the Mubarak regime.” (source) So there you have it.

Ironically, the election of Bibi Netanyahu in Israel may speed Mubarak’s fate. Bibi is a known quantity in the Middle East. His charged, nationalistic approach to politics is viewed as heavy-handed and belligerent. And not by Arabs alone. He had famously bad relations with the Clinton administration. The White House spokesman at the time was Joe Lockhart, who described Netanyahu in an interview as "one of the most obnoxious individuals you're going to come into - just a liar and a cheat. He could open his mouth and you could have no confidence that anything that came out of it was the truth."

This is what Arab moderation brings? The addition of Avignor Lieberman to the equation only roils the waters even more. His view that Arab Israeli citizens should be deported is racist and smacks of ethnic cleansing. Surprise, that’s just what is going on following the election in East Jerusalem. Jewish settlers, with the support of the Israeli military, are attacking and evicting Palestinian Arabs from their historic homes in the old town. The worst fears of the Arab nation are being realized. And that is sinking in.

So Mubarket is angry, with good reason. His plans have gone awry and his promises have not materialized. And he is also worried and getting desperate. At 83 years, he is not the soldier he used to be; and thus, he is vulnerable. I’m sure that fact is also not lost on the Arab street.

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