Are Russia & Turkey Headed for a Showdown?

As the Middle East heats up yet again, and our attention is focused on Syria, Egypt and the wave of anti-American sentiment boiling up throughout the Muslim world, the specter of another potential conflict is going unnoticed.

The Caucasus are seething with ethnic, religious and sectarian tensions that may ignite the region, pitting Russia against a resurgent Turkey in a conflict that could encompass Iran and Syria. The region is especially volatile at the moment due to the Syrian civil war; overt Israeli threats to attack Iran; and massive war games being conducted by opposing forces.

 A potential burning fuse, largely overlooked in the Western press, is the simmering conflict between neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries; one largely Christian, the other largely Muslim, fought a bitter and costly war in the early 1990's. 30,000 people died and over one million were displaced during that conflict, over the region known as Nagorno Karabakh. The Armenian side won that round, and remains in control of the disputed region within the borders of Azerbaijan. An uncomfortable peace has ensued since the conclusion of the conflict in 1994.

 A murder in Hungary, a recent extradition to Azerbaijan; followed by a presidential pardon, has now re-kindled passions on both sides. Uh-huh. It's that kind of story. For the long-and-short of it, read this fine analysis in the Seattle Times. It should be noted that in the period since the war, Azerbaijan has pumped billions of petro-dollars into a massively upgraded military. Bottom line: If Armenia and Azerbaijan begin another war, Russia is obliged by treaty to support and defend it's ally Armenia. Turkey, on the other hand, is obliged by treaty to support and defend Azerbaijan. You can see where this is going.

But it gets better yet. Russia, along with China, have been staunch supporters of both the Iranian and Syrian regimes. Iranian proxies in the region are many, and include the likes of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is armed with rockets and a disciplined, highly trained and battle-hardened fighting force. So just imagine the potential face-off:  Western powers, Israel, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Sunni Arab states on one side; Russia, Armenia, Iran, Syria and; Hezbollah on the other. With China on the sidelines cheering for the Russian axis. It's not a pretty picture. Alarmingly biblical from my point-of-view. Especially given the atmosphere of highly-charged religion that is permeating the entire conflict.

Have Washington strategists even considered this scenario? It does appear we're being dragged, kicking-and-screaming, into the Israeli/Iranian conflict - which could easily serves as the other burning fuse. I'm not satisfied we have a credible strategy in place to deal with these potential scenarios. To date, our response has been to pack the region with military assets - along with our allies. Looks to me like there's at least a possibility that we're being lured into an ambush that will make the current riots on the street look like child's play.