Syria - The Other View

The so-called Syrian revolution, often cast as an extension of the Arab Spring, is at the center of the news on a daily basis.

After months of unrest, and over ten thousand deaths, the UN has observers on the ground after a failure by the Arab League to stop the unrest. Indeed, the Arab League is meeting in Doha as I write.

It seems clear, a dictatorial regime suppressing the democratic yearnings of its people. Most world leaders, including Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, have condemned the regime, and international sanctions are now in place. But it’s not that simple, believe me. The conflict must be viewed in the larger regional context of the ongoing struggle between Sunni and Shia branches of Islam.

Syria is a majority Sunni country, ruled by the minority Alawite sect. Alawites are an offshoot of mainstream Shia, and heavily influenced by Persian Iran. This article in “The Middle East Online” explains.

As noted in the cited article, the Shia – Sunni conflict dates back to the 7th Century and involves the direct descendent of the prophet Mohammed. As a Persian friend of mine once wryly observed: “Their guy killed our guy…” And so it goes. At the Battle of the Camel, the prophet’s widow (his second wife) opposed her step-son-in-law Ali outside the city of Basra. Her father, Abu Bakr, became Sunni Islam’s first Caliph, chosen by the faithful.  Shia discount the first three Caliphs believing that the Prophet's cousin Ali was divinely chosen to lead the faithful, and only his direct descendants can be Imams. 


 Sunni Islam emphasizes the “word” exclusively; and Shia’s celebrate the messengers, their descendents, holy places and the Islamic "saints." Shias are the majority in Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Bahrain. They are the majority religious sect in Lebanon, the home of Hezbollah. But the worldwide population of Shia is relatively small, estimated to be between 10 - 20 percent of all Muslims.  They are distributed in what has been labeled the Shiite Crescent. For centuries, the Shia have been afforded second-class citizenship in majority Sunni countries. They are frequently the underclass, poorer than their Sunni neighbors. This has predisposed the Shia to being accepting of other faiths, due to their own persecution, and to issues around social justice as a consequence of their poverty and disenfranchised state. This is not always the case, as all sects have their fundamentalists.  But in the author's opinion, the Shia hold far less threat to their neighbors and the West in general than the fundamentalist, Sunni Salafi sect.

So the situation in Syria is a complex one. Minorities in Syria, like the Kurds and Christians have been reluctant to oppose Bashar al Assad - even though they support democracy - because his regime had been largely secular. A dictator to be sure, just like his strong-armed Baathist father, Assad is an educated physician who understands the consequences of defeat. And if Syria becomes democratic, he will be defeated.  The irony is that a majority Sunni government could easily end up much more repressive that Assad's Alawite, Baathist regime.  Just look at Iraq. Does anyone really believe that Iraq is better off now than it was under Saddam Hussein?  The moral of this convoluted story is that one needs to be careful what one wishes for, as it may turn out to be more than bargained for..

Source of historical background. Wikipedia Article.

An update (24/4/2012) from Kurdish News is here.