Breakthrough?

If the Turks will talk to Abdullah Ocalan, anything is possible. Today's Zaman, the country's leading daily newspaper (associated with the party in power), seems to think that might be happening soon. This is an amazing development - given the intractable nature of Turkey's "Kurdish problem." It speaks to the change that can be wrought out of regional turmoil. Because surely this would not have happened if Turkey's neighbors were all stable, peaceful and conducting business as usual.

But, of course, that's not the case. Syria is melting down, and the Assad regime may fall in days if not in hours. Syrian Kurds, the largest ethnic minority in the country, have moved assertively to secure and govern villages in the North that are under their control. But there are some who believe that this situation, though necessary for the local population to protect their families and their land, may inevitably lead to regional war.

In Iraq, the region of Kurdistan has recently flexed its muscle in a standoff with the Shiite leadership in Baghdad. Iraqi Kurdistan is the most stable, developed and prosperous province in the country - a real shining example of Kurdish leadership that is not lost on Kurds in neighboring nations.

In Turkey, where there are millions of Kurds in the South, the Kurdish conflict has been well understood for generations. Kurds make up 18% of Turkey's population; and for years, Kurds in Turkey were not allowed to speak their own language; to participate in cultural and folk festivals, or to open their own schools. Though much of that has changed in recent years, the ongoing insurrection by the militant PKK is a central focus of the central government in Ankara. That's what makes this development so interesting, and potentially important.

You see, Ocalan is a founding member of the PKK - and the author of over 40 books. A real Kurdish oracle. But even that fails to adequately describe his importance. Adding another layer of intrigue, Ocalan was sheltering in Syria when the Turkish government forced his Syrian hosts to evict him in early 1998. The author will be watching developments over the next few days and weeks with interest. This is a time of upheaval, change and re-alignments. All things are possible.