And now, the Western World, and Syria's close neighbors, are concerned about the possibility of a chemical weapons attack. To wit, President Obama promptly issued a specific statement warning Syria of the consequences. With good reason. The Assad regime seems determined to cling to power at all costs, convinced that any "deal" or "retreat" will lead to their ultimate demise. Again, with good reason.
Even the UN now recognizes that the conflict has become sectarian, part of the larger regional struggle between Shia and Sunni; between modernism and fundamentalism. Entire tribes, villages and provinces are locked in an increasingly bitter struggle. Ethnic cleansing and fratricidal war crimes are abundant on both sides. And as in most cases of civil war, it is the civilian population; often the elderly, women and children who are paying the highest price.
Of particular concern is the fact that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) shows signs of being co-opted by Salafi jihadists, the worst of all possible worlds. Americans will know Salafis as the predominant sect of the 9/11 bombers; an companion religious philosophy to the Wahabi school that produced Osama bin Laden. The Wahabi school of fundamentalists controls religious life in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where most of the 9/11 crew called home.
One can see evidence of Salafi influence in Syria in the patrols of religious police now being deployed in some rural areas of the country under FSA control.
It is important to remember that under Assad, Syria was a non-sectarian, Baathist government that though dictatorial practiced tolerance and modernism. That is to say that minorities like the Syrian Christians, Druze, and Kurds all lived in harmony and were permitted free practice of their religious rites. Women in Syria were pilots, lawyers, and they had no dress restrictions to speak of under the Assad regime. That's because it was scrupulously non-sectarian, non religious. That will soon change. And probably not for the better.
At the end of the day, a vast majority of the Syrian population are Sunni Muslims. But some, like the Kurds, are more driven by ethnic/cultural identity concerns than by religion. Syria also has a minority population of Turkomen, some Shia and others Sunni. It is important to note that in any democratic election, the presumption is that Sunni-backed parties would capture a majority of votes in many areas. As we've seen in Egypt, when popular vote is instituted Arab countries sometimes veer to the fundamentalist right.
The conflict does appear to be turning in favor of the majority Sunni fighters who now control vast areas of the countryside and suburbs of the country's biggest cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. Several Syrian military bases and academies have been overrun in recent weeks, and the rebels have commandeered heavy weapons from those victories. Now, they have shoulder-launched anti-aircraft rockets and tanks in their arsenals. So naturally, they've been warning of the imminent collapse of the capital. But not all see it that way, with a number of regional experts predicting a long, bloody and drawn-out end-game to the war. Remember, in neighboring Lebanon the civil war went on for fifteen years - until the combatants got tired of the fight and the destruction and agreed a coalition government.
Is that what we have to look forward to in Syria? And will history record that the West picked the right and most strategic side in this fight? What role does our relationship with Israel and our dispute with Iran factor in to our Syrian strategy? These are pressing questions that require answers. This blog will be addressing these issues as events unfold.
UPDATE: The NY Times ran this analysis today; reporting on Assad's current choices and influences.
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